First posted on IdahoEdNews.org on October 20, 2022
Idaho’s four-year schools touted a number of big numbers this week.
Not without reason. Enrollment numbers are generally moving in the right direction as the post-pandemic recovery continues.
However, the numbers are messy because they tend to be messy. Enrollment reports filed with the State Board of Education in the past few days include undergraduate and graduate students, as well as high school students taking double-credit classes. In short, it mashes up a college student trying to get a degree and (potentially, but not automatically) a high school student attending college. Two important groups, of course, but two fundamentally different groups.
Let’s go back for a moment to that important but inconvenient reality. But in all fairness, let’s first give her four-year school a chance to express a mix of optimism and relief — Lewis-Clark State University president Cynthia Pemberton said Wednesday at her Lewiston campus. Just like I did at a State Board of Education meeting.
“We’re definitely digging,” she said. “We are certainly on the rise.”
Rise — and promising news in one key area
Like many schools across the country, Idaho’s colleges have a huge chasm to dig.
The decline in enrollment due to COVID-19, documented in our detailed June 2021 Idaho Education News series, was profound and almost entirely universal. From Fall 2019 through his Spring 2021, nearly all his two-year and four-year schools in the state lost more than 5,000 students.
During the pandemic, universities struggled to attract already hard-to-recruit students, such as first-generation college students and students from low-income families. Additionally, the university had difficulty convincing Idaho high school graduates to continue their education and stay in Idaho.
As a result, the campus demographic changed in another important and eye-opening way. Out-of-state students have increased their share of total enrollment. Nowhere has this been more pronounced than at Boise State University. In 2021, for the first time in her 89-year history of the school, a majority of freshmen will come from outside Idaho.
Boise President Marlene Trump has been trying to change this narrative for months. In her college speech in August, she hinted at a surge in enrollment in the state, and her predictions were spot on. In-state enrollment in her first year increased by 314, up 20.7%. Yes, Idahoans once again make up the majority of Boise State University’s freshman class.
“It’s incredible to see more Idahoans choosing to stay home and attend Boise State University,” Trump said in a news release Thursday.
It’s an unconditional win for Boise State University’s admissions staff, who continue to market aggressively on the West Coast, but were embarrassed when students across the state didn’t show up as expected during the pandemic.
- U of I increased first-year in-state enrollment by nearly 10%, contributing to a record-breaking freshman class of 1,951 students.
- Lewis-Clark reports an 11% increase in first-year students across the state.
- However, Idaho State University saw an 8.9% decline.
Enrollment numbers within these states are significant. His increases at three of her four-year schools in the state suggest that Idaho’s dismal “retention” rate is at least flat or even improving. By 2021, only 37% of high school graduates will have gone on to college. This figure has dropped by 9 percentage points during the pandemic.
Retention rates for 2022 have not been announced.
But if there’s one trend in Idaho higher education enrollments to watch, it’s a good place to start with the in-state numbers. In-state recruitment incorporates all of the other recruitment challenges facing higher education in Idaho. That means attracting first-generation students, low-income students, rural students, and students of color.
complicated conclusions
If you want a soundbite, all four-year schools have settled in this fall.
- Boise: Total enrollment was 26,162, up 1.3%.
- Idaho: Enrollment was 12,319, up 1.3%.
- U of I: 11,507 registrants, up 1.8%.
- Lewis-Clark: Headcount totaled 3,783, up 2%.
That’s the simple answer — and it’s encouraging. But things quickly get complicated.
At Boise State University, an increase in dual-credit enrollment is responsible for the overall increase. The number of degree-seeking students (undergraduates and graduates attending classes on the state’s largest campus) actually fell by 1.6%.
Same story with Lewis Clark. Taking double-credit students out of the equation, he actually decreased his fall semester numbers by 1.2%.
Regardless of double-credit enrollment, the college and Idaho State University have seen an increase in on-campus enrollment for degrees.
what is going on here? A lot of things.
More than two years after the pandemic, the return to campus looks spotty. Some students certainly missed college because they were nervous about transitioning from in-person to virtual learning during the pandemic, or because he was afraid of COVID-19. Now some of them have decided it’s time to register. But other would-be students must be postponing things, perhaps for other reasons, such as fears of inflation or the lure of $15 an hour jobs in a robust labor market.
Also note that none of these economic factors affect registration for dual credit.
By and large, degree-seeking students and their parents must pay and take out loans to pay for college tuition. It’s a family financial commitment.
However, in Idaho, the state pays high school students to take double credits. It’s the Idaho Higher Education Futures Market. By giving the high school student her $4,125 to spend on college classes, the state hopes to one day attract these students to college campuses.
The degree-seeking and dual-credit cohorts of students don’t have much in common, other than the fact that both groups of students take college classes in Idaho. So the registration report puts them all together.
Earnings appear to be improving this fall. But like most statistics, it’s complicated.
Each week Kevin Richert writes an analysis of education policy and politics. Look for it every Thursday.
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