Led by tech, housing and professional services, Oregon has restored many of the jobs lost to the pandemic, but the hospitality, education and health care sectors will replace all workers who left those sectors. (Quinton Smith/Yachats News)
Christine Drazan
betsey johnson
Tina Kotek
Oregon’s governor has less control over the greater economic forces that determine whether the state’s economy booms or dies.
“Mahonia Hall doesn’t set monetary policy,” said Betsey Johnson, one of the candidates likely to move to the governor’s mansion after the November election.
That’s true enough. But the governor’s policies will help Oregon and its 4.2 million population weather the economic storm.
Governors serve four-year terms and eight years if re-elected. Oregon’s leading economic consultant thinks it could be enough time for the incoming governor to look beyond the peaks and troughs of the business cycle and position the state for long-term prosperity. .
John Tapogna, senior policy adviser at ECONorthwest, an independent economic consulting firm based in Portland, said Oregon’s next governor will fundamentally change the state’s economy for generations to come. He said it is necessary to pay attention to possible trends.
Fundamental change is nothing new to Oregon’s economy. Over the last 30 years, the state has moved from a natural resource base to employing manufacturing and marketing, with an emphasis on high technology, especially in her three city-counties in the Portland metropolitan area.
However, the state’s more rural counties, still strongly tied to agriculture and natural resources such as timber, have not always benefited from the economic boom.
Oregon’s economy remains closely tied to the global economy and the US economy. Oregon is one of the most trade-dependent states of all US states, both to the Pacific Rim and to other states. This helps explain why Oregon is particularly vulnerable during a domestic or global recession.
“We drop a lot when we go down,” said Taponha. “When we go up, we grow faster.”
It took Oregon 30 months to recover to pre-pandemic job numbers in early 2019. The current national and Oregon unemployment rate is down to 3.7% from 13.3% at the height of the pandemic.
But the job recovery has been uneven, favoring high tech, professional and technical services, and pretty much everything related to housing and homes. Health care, education and hospitality were the weakest recoveries.
As usual, the job recovery has landed on either side of Oregon’s urban-rural divide. County, Central Oregon, Willamette Valley. Job growth in coastal and southern and eastern Oregon lags behind.
And as the U.S. deals with inflation, state economists believe there’s a 50-50 chance the U.S. will slip into a mild recession — and that will certainly affect Oregon.
new challenge
Tapogna sees other trends that could bring about big changes to Oregon’s economy.
For one, Oregon has more deaths than births, so if the state’s population were to grow, people would choose to move there.
“Governors need to step back and say, ‘What’s making this state attractive and what’s hurting it?'”
At the top of Tapogna’s list is affordable housing and the associated homelessness crisis. He said over two terms, the governor “can do so much in terms of tone and policy setting” on housing.
The incoming governor may work to expand broadband Internet coverage throughout Oregon, especially in rural areas, Tapogna said. Services such as telemedicine can play a major role in enabling rural residents to age in place with confidence in their ability to receive adequate medical care. Additionally, businesses across the state need fast, reliable Internet service.
Another factor that determines whether Oregon can attract newcomers is the quality of its schools. Tapona said he believes the incoming governor needs to focus on students, schools and teachers who “are on the front lines, like health care workers, coping with so much stress.”
Another trend — Oregon has moved from the middle to top quartile of US states in overall taxation. Tapona says that doesn’t necessarily keep newcomers away, especially when those taxes are paid for popular and well-provided government services.
That sets the stage. How would Oregon’s leading gubernatorial candidates act on it? Here’s what they say:
Christine Drazan, Republican
(Editor’s Note: Tina Kotek and Betsey Johnson agreed to be interviewed separately by the six reporters who contributed to this project. based on.)
Republican candidate Christine Drazan told Oregon/Oregon Live to block future tax increases, accusing the state gas tax and new business activity tax of driving up prices in the state.
Responding to a question from the Oregon Capital Chronicle, Drazan said Oregon’s business activity tax would “make businesses large and small less competitive in global and local markets, making consumers more willing to buy everyday goods and services.” She said she would have voted against the tax in Congress and vetoed the bill.
In a survey she completed for The Oregonian, she wrote: My election as governor will end the one-party rule that has exacerbated the state’s affordability crisis over the past decade. ”
Drazan said her administration will “support natural resource-based industries like Oregon’s rural timber industry and make this economic engine part of not only the past, but the future of the state.” She cites a recent law mandating overtime pay for certain farm workers as an example. He said he would have exercised his right to veto the bill.
In a Capital Chronicle poll, Drazan said: Our taxes are too high, and (and) our regulatory environment is becoming increasingly complex and difficult to navigate. ”
Tina Kotek, Democrat
In an interview, Kotek said it would address the labor shortages plaguing employers across the state. One way he does that is by working with community colleges on vocational training programs. When it comes to state funding, Community said her colleges are too often an “afterthought,” but she added: , cities and suburbs, and I want to support them 110%.
Kotek said the lack of affordable housing for workers is also an economic problem. On the first day of her term, she said she would issue an executive order to increase the pace and scale of housing development statewide.
Lawmakers have set aside reserves that should help the state weather a potential recession, she said. He added that it is important to have effective programs that help state residents earn a living.
“We want people to get help with their rent, get help with food, get help with childcare …These programs that we have have to work. ”
Expanding childcare is vital, she said. “I think this will help employers who want people to come back to work. It’s really hard when someone can’t find daycare.”
Kotek said the incoming governor will need to pay attention to all sectors of the state’s economy, both urban and rural. She said expanding her broadband Internet services into rural Oregon is key to economic growth in the region.
She pledged to work with the state’s natural resources industry, which is so important to rural Oregon. ‘, she said.
Betsey Johnson, independent
Mr Johnson said in an interview that he would be a “cheerleader” for economic development.
Johnson said Business Oregon, Oregon’s business development agency, will work to become more responsive to the needs of businesses and local institutions that also address economic development issues.
She said the state government has a reputation for being anti-business. “And I’ve witnessed first-hand the hostility to business in the legislative branch.”
Her goal, she said, is to make the state government a “welcome place” for business. She said it is important for state governments and legislatures to create a stable business environment “because what business needs above all else is reliability and predictability.”
Johnson said the incoming governor needs to work to ensure that state agencies that work with businesses are “agile and responsive.” It doesn’t matter if you make wood chips, silicon chips, potato chips, or fish and chips. We have different economies. And they all face specific challenges. ”
State governments should not only be more welcoming to business, but also support emerging economic sectors such as craft beer and spirits, she said. “I don’t think the state has been responsive, welcoming, or optimistic not only in terms of business adoption, but retention as well.”
Johnson said her record supports her economic development credentials.
Johnson also advocated state fiscal discipline, especially if the national economy was in recession, and lawmakers were wise to establish a rainy day fund, she said. The drumbeat of a looming recession is low,” he said, advocating increasing state reserves.
Editor’s Note: This article is part of a coalition of newsrooms for the gubernatorial race, with Republican Christine Drazan, independent Betsey Johnson, and Democrat Tina Kotek each joining six newsrooms to tackle important topics. is working on. The Mail Tribune wrote about abortion and the Albany Herald-Democrat about wildfires and drought. Ashland News covered health care, including mental health. The Oregon Capital Chronicle covers housing, the Salem Reporter covers education and his Yachats News. I wrote about the economy and the cost of living.
economic vote
SB 139 (2021 Ordinary General Assembly), passed
Removed tax breaks for pass-through businesses with more than $5 million in annual profits.Pass-through businesses do not pay corporate tax and are taxed with personal income tax
HB 3389 (2021 Ordinary General Assembly), Passed
Offered to businesses impacted by tax increases due to layoffs during the pandemic, with some tax deferrals or exemptions from 2021.
- Kotek — yes (regular sponsor)
Passed HB 2975 (2019 Annual General Meeting)
Reduced Oregon kicker tax refunds by $108 million. A kicker tax refund occurs when a state’s tax revenue exceeds her forecast by more than 2%, and the state must return the money to the taxpayer.
Source: Alexis Weisend, Catalyst Journalism Project, University of Oregon
Comments
Post a Comment