Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros are one win away from advancing to the World Series as the MLB League Championship Series continues on Sunday.
The San Diego Padres of the National League and the New York Yankees of the American League are trying to survive by winning another game.
Guide you through these playoffs by providing daily learning materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some of my favorite bets on the daily slate.
That’s the school bell and it means only one thing.
Class is back in session!
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday’s game:Here are the odds FOXbet (always ET).
Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos lead Phillies 8-6
Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos will take on the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday against the San Diego Padres.
San Diego Padres (With Darvish) and Philadelphia Phillies (Zach Wheeler), 2:37 PM (FS1)
This is a rematch of Game 1 of the series, in which both Yu Darvish and Zach Wheeler had quality games, going 7 innings and scoring 15 strikeouts.
You might be tempted to assume another game with a lower score, but consider this. The Phillies hit a total of nine hard-hitting balls (95 plus exit velocity) against Darvish. Also, he touched 82% of Darvish’s cutters who were in the zone, his 78% of his fastballs, and his 67% of his sliders.
By comparison, the majority of Wheeler’s pitches were fastballs, and the Padres slugger made contact on 83% of in-zone pitches. 75% are outside the zone.
These good line-ups of hitters have the opportunity to make good contact and send the ball deep. This is a return to the average game. We like the overrun totals, just like we saw on Saturday night.
PICK: Padres-Phillies over/under (on FOX bet)
Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) and new york yankees (Nestor Cortez), 7:07 p.m. (TBS)
Regardless of sport, I have never believed that when a team leads 3-0 in a series, the team behind them automatically gives up.
Treat your players, coaches and managers like a pro when placing bets. More often than not, the teams leading the series are significantly better, and that’s what we’ve seen, at least offensively.
In projected batting average, Houston is more than 30 points ahead of the Yankees this postseason, and the Astros have about four more run values. While metrics that include power say they’re less biased, offensive versatility becomes important in the postseason when the weather gets colder and relief pitchers can include starters.
New York’s batting average is lower than expected minus the expected batting difference, so we expect a tight game, but given the Yankees’ advantage, the Astros’ money line is worth it (+105 in FOX betting). ).
PICK: Astros Moneyline (+105 on FOX Bet, bet $10 and win a total of $20.50) win outright
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist, and adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions made him a lover of cold beer. Edward previously worked on local television for a Fox affiliate in Dallas covering Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.follow him T.Witter @EdWithSports.
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