Republicans are leading the three high-profile races for the 2022 Arkansas general election, with Senators John Boozman, R-Ark., and Lt. Tim Griffin down significantly since the baseline survey in September. has been on the rise.
A recent Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of 974 Arkansas voter candidates found Boozman had a 20-point lead over his Democratic rival, Griffin a 26-point lead, and Republican gubernatorial nominee Sarah Huckabee. Sanders is shown to be leading by 10 points. Her challenger, Democrat Chris Jones.
Saunders and Jones’ race has remained virtually unchanged since September. Boozman’s lead over Democrat Natalie James widened from 14 points to 20 points, while Griffin’s lead over Democrat Jesse Gibson widened from 17 points to 26 points.
In a statewide poll conducted October 17-18, 2022, respondents were asked:
Q. If the U.S. Senate election were today, who would be the next candidate? will you vote?
Senator John Boozman (Republican) 52%
32% Natalie James (Democrat)
3% Kenneth Cates (L)
13% undecided
Q. If there was a gubernatorial election today, who would be the next candidate? will you vote?
51% Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican)
41% Chris Jones (Democrat)
3% Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)
5% undecided
Q. If the Attorney General election was held today, which of the following would it be? Will you vote for the candidate?
57% Lieutenant Governor Tim Griffin (Republican)
31% Jesse Gibson (Democrat)
12% undecided
“I think these results show that the Republicans will win, but what is somewhat surprising is the potential margin of victory,” said Robbie Brock, editor-in-chief of Talk Business and Politics. I was. “We don’t expect any upsets on election night, but we would have expected more conformity on the margins.”
On Sunday, Talk Business & Politics will release poll results on issues 1, 2, 3, and 4.
analysis
Talk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the creation and analysis of polls.
Dr. Jay Barth, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Hendricks College, is an active participant in Democratic politics and helped produce and analyze the latest poll. He analyzed the results of the poll as follows.
“Similar to a survey we did earlier in the fall, we have seen tested voter attitudes dissent in three campaigns for high-profile public offices statewide. Interestingly, in two elections, this We’ve seen voters who were undecided until now clearly shift to the Republican frontrunner.In both the U.S. Senate and Attorney General elections, the Republican Party has begun to see campaign ads appear regularly to encourage voters to vote. Incumbent U.S. Senator John Boozman and Republican AG candidate Lieutenant Tim Griffin have both significantly extended their lead at a time when the . Both appear to be on a fairly dominant path to victory with Griffin, a candidate who has reached across the convoluted branch of Republican voters. It has a good chance of leading statewide tickets.
“But little changed in the high-profile third game. Republican candidate Sarah Huckabee Sanders maintains a unique lead over Democrat Chris Jones, but a polarizing Sanders has failed to open up a broader lead, and a September survey found relatively few voters in the state gubernatorial race, and that continues today. Despite spending $10,000, voter tastes have changed little: Jones has enough money to run a credible media campaign and remain reasonably competitive in a tough state for Democrats. Indeed, Jones may be well on his way to becoming the best-performing statewide for Democrats in several election cycles.
“Looking below the top-line results, the basic voting patterns are similar across the three races. Voters with no college education, white voters, men, and older voters all turn to Republican candidates. But Democrats outperform more educated voters, voters of color, women, and the youngest groups of voters.Geographically, the #2 constituency is the most Democratic constituency But in three precincts, Jones leads only in the Central Arkansas enclave (53% of the vote). But it’s Jones who has most effectively garnered Democratic support and is leading among independents.Boozman and Griffin both lead the independents in the race.”
Robert Kuhn, managing partner of the Impact Management Group, which works with Republican candidates, also helped create and analyze the latest poll. He analyzed the results of the poll as follows.
“Sarah Huckabee Sanders (51%) continues to lead Chris Jones (41%) in the gubernatorial race with just 5% of undecided voters in the race. High (88%), Jones had a 95% Democratic approval rating, while independents, like in September, leaned in favor of Jones by a 3% difference (46% vs. 43%). Continuing to lead among the two oldest age groups (53%, 57%), Jones leads among voters under 30 (51%) and 30-44 (44%). As with , one of the biggest gaps among candidates relates to educational attainment: voters with a four-year college degree favor Jones (58%-36%), while voters without a degree favor Jones. I favor Sanders (59%-32%), who leads in both men (54%) and women (48%), but as before, her lead in women is marginal ( +1%).Geographically, Jones’ largest approval rating is CD2 (53%), with Sanders leading in all other congressional districts.Overall, Jones beats other Democratic candidates on the ballot. This is due to the fact that he raised a lot of money this cycle and is the only Democratic candidate to ever spend more than $3 million. If his overperformance continues, it will undoubtedly be a high watermark for Democrats on Election Day, but it won’t be enough to win.
“Lieutenant. Gov. Tim Griffin extended his lead over opponent Jesse Gibson from 17 percentage points in September to 26 percentage points today. Gibson leads in the age category of: Along with gender, a majority of both men (63%) and women (52%) indicated they planned to vote for Griffin, up from 57% and 42% in September. Griffin’s approval rating has reached 90% within the Republican Party and 55% among independents (up from 44% in September).
“Senator John Boozman’s approval rating is 52%, up 8 percentage points since September and extending his lead over Natalie James to 20 percentage points. Boozman’s share of the Republican Party has increased to 88%, while independents support Senators 44% of the time, compared to James’ 35%. (47%) both lead in all four congressional districts, most notably as the percentage of undecided voters has declined since September (21% then compared to 13% now) , Boozman is receiving nearly all of the support increases that mark the trend line on Election Day.”
methodology
The survey of 974 Arkansas potential voters will be conducted October 17-18, 2022 with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.
Year
Below 30 – 5%
30-44 – 20%
45-64 – 40%
65+ – 35%
Race
Black 9%
Asia 0.5%
White 86%
Hispanic 1%
Other 3.5%
political party affiliation
Democrats 26%
Independent 27.5%
Republican 42%
Other 4.5%
sex
Female 52%
Male 48%
education
College graduate 36%
No college degree 64%
Responses were collected via SMS over the phone. The poll is slightly weighted to take into account key demographics such as age, ethnicity, education and gender.
All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce or rebroadcast information from this poll, with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link to this particular story is also required for digital or online use by other media outlets.
For an interview, email Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock. [email protected]
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