After the New Yankees’ 2022 season funerals are all over, the thoughts of fans and observers of the team are shifting from yet another playoff loss by the Houston Astros to a major storyline for the upcoming winter, Aaron Judge’s looming free agency. will be
After hitting an American League record 62 homers in the 2022 season, Judge will be the most coveted free agent in the 2022-23 season. Given his skill, walk-year dominance, and prominence on the team he may have played his last game with, Judge will undoubtedly be the most talked-about free agent of the coming offseason. We’re here to do just that – talk to Aaron Judge and his upcoming free agency.
Given that the offseason hasn’t even started yet, there’s a lot of guesswork below, but there are a few that are closely tied to Judge’s market journey, regardless of where or how much he contracts. There are also basic facts. So let’s start setting the scene by taking a quick look at each of the six factors that will shape the future of Judges.
Judge’s Legendary Walking Year
As mentioned earlier, Judge hit 62 home runs this season, but his prominence in 2022 doesn’t stop there. In his 157 games in the regular season, he batted .311/.425/.686 and had an OPS+ that put him a whopping 211. Judges ran in the Triple Crown and he led the AL in walks. As has been the case throughout his career, he also boasted top-of-scale batting metrics. This shows that elite production will continue to move forward.
Likewise, Judge is not a one-sided slugger, despite his massive build. He’s stolen 16 bases this season, and he’s slugging 50% of the time against his 43% league average. Judge also spent most of the defensive inning in center field, reminding us that in the ALCS, he is capable of snares with a range of:
That athleticism bodes very well for Judge regarding the aging curve ahead, suggesting he will retain his skills for a long time. is important for
Yankees attempt to sign him
Yankees executives have repeatedly expressed a desire to lock in Judge by signing him to a long-term contract extension, with repeated negotiations to that end leading up to the 2022 regular season. Deviating from established norms, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said the Yankees offered Judges a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension late in spring training, but Judges rejected them. It wasn’t a competitive offer even before Judge’s legendary 2022 season. Like many other pending free agents, the judges were unwilling to negotiate during the season. , was the last offer the Yankees made, as far as we know.
eligible offers
This is one bit of a minor consideration in this whole affair, but one we’ll hear soon. A Qualifying Offer (QO) basically allows a team to bid for a pending free agent in most circumstances. 1 year offer (players previously receiving QO or traded during a walk year are not eligible for QO). The QO value is the average of MLB’s top 125 annual salaries, making him worth $19.65 million for the 2023 season. If a player accepts his QO offered, he’s signed a contract for the next season at his QO amount for that year, and his free agency will put him on the table for another year. Players who accept QO are also free to do multi-year extensions with their teams.
A team that extends QO into pending free agency is entitled to draft pick rewards if that player declines QO and signs a major league free agent contract with another team. Depending on multiple factors, including the value of the contract he signed, the player’s former team revenue share and luxury tax status, that compensation draft pick will drop at the end of the first round or at the end of the competitive balance round B. On the other hand, a team signed by a free agent who refuses QO must forfeit at least one draft pick and, in some circumstances, take money from the international bonus pool used to sign international amateur free agents. You will lose.
In Judge’s case, the Yankees will definitely offer him a QO and Judge will almost certainly decline it. Non-superstar free agents could see the free agent market shrink a bit due to the QO burden and draft pick losses, but judge ability free agents are basically immune to that. Hmm.
When a Judge Becomes a Free Agent
Eligible players will become free agents on November 6th. However, there will be a five-day silence period after which the free agent can only negotiate with the team he played in 2022. Teams signed during the quiet period are eligible to negotiate with any team. November 10th is also the deadline for teams to submit eligible offers. After a player receives his QO, he has 10 days to decide whether to accept it, but if the quiet period has ended, he can negotiate with other teams in the meantime . In Judge’s case, he’ll likely refuse QO out of the box and join the free agency race, where he can trade with any team starting November 10.
Judge’s next contract
According to Jon Heyman, the judges refuted the Yankees’ $36 million per year proposal over nine or ten years. 2022. Offering a deal worth up to $360 million doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll get it, but it’s kind of a signpost.
As for the deal Judge will eventually sign as a free agent, whether it’s with the Yankees or another suitor, we’ll have to wait until late September when Judge’s historic breadth for the 2022 season is revealed. Mike Axia himself has delved into this issue (very) deeply. He signed his $342 million deal over nine years.
To expand this particular mind into hive territory, add that figure to the best guesses made by the remaining five members of CBS Sports MLB’s writing and editorial staff, reaching 358 million over nine years. We’ve reached the crowdsourced average (rounded off) of $. Put another way, our estimate is that Judge will sign over $350 million in contracts over the course of his 38-year-old season. Of course, market conditions are fluid, but it’s probably closer to the price tag this winter.
Judge Landing Site Candidates
A return to the Yankees remains the most likely outcome. They aren’t spending as much as their nearly endless income these days, but losing Judge would be a blow to an organization that already seems to be running out of energy. High-earning clubs such as the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants are candidates if they decide to enter. Potential dark horses include the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas. Rangers and Houston Astros included. Of course, this isn’t an exhaustive list, and it seems every marquee-free agency has produced one or more surprise suitors for her. If the madness sets in soon, so will probably be the Judges.
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