The complex forecasting algorithms used by commodity traders to forecast prices and by the Federal Reserve to forecast GDP growth have new uses. It’s about predicting how an athlete’s performance will affect the team’s chances of winning a game. Quant Edge, started by longtime oil trader Todd Gross and backed by New York football legend Shep Messing, believes venture capitalists want to buy the idea for $10 million. .
The math is complicated, but the idea is simple. Kalman filtering, an algorithm used in machine learning (ML), retrieves a lot of information, including seemingly useless information, and finds statistically significant relationships between pairs of groups of data points. . .
Quant Edge is a sports betting service that allows bettors to fine-tune the impact of player influence on the game, predict how it will affect overs/unders and which teams are likely to win. “We use quantitative analysis in a number of ways to give bettors something to do, to help quantify their thoughts,” Gross said in a video call.
Gross, who wrote a textbook chapter on commodity trading, landed on sports betting after exploring many avenues on how to successfully apply the Kalman filter to financial markets. The sudden opening of the US sports betting market made him realize that he could use math to predict the performance of teams and athletes. Kalman filtering is not perfect, but it tends to be more accurate than traditional estimation methods. This is to detect connections that a person may never notice, or that take months of painstaking work to discover. Uses of ML like this are expanding, from determining if some consumer is more credit risky than his FICO score, to helping NASA identify distant planets. , finding a foothold in everything.
Quant Edge allows bettors paying as much as $50 a month for access to fine-tune the performance of their selected player group. influence their bets. The company also provides player impact predictions for NBA games.
According to Gross, people who regularly use the system make more winning bets than losing ones. His website at Quant Edge advertises his 65% success rate “when using the player impact tool effectively.” In other words, don’t bet your house on a single game, as ML offers probability, not certainty. “I’ve been lucky to have really good results in the last four years in the NFL,” Gross said.
Gross recently brought on as investors Shep Messing, best known as goalie for Pele’s New York Cosmos, and sports marketing expert Rob Storia. His M-Style his marketing has worked extensively with his NHL and recently acquired an indoor soccer team alongside Ronaldinho. The pair brings the sports expertise Gross believes hedge fund and commodity trading veterans in his group need. I didn’t even know,” Gross said.
The trio now has Livingston Securities raise a $10 million venture capital round to develop player impact modeling for global football players and provide more granular options for NFL and NBA players, Gross said. said Mr. What this means is that instead of judging whether a James Harden match is ‘bad’, ‘average’ or ‘great’ by odds, bettors can choose a number of values along the spectrum.
With the addition of soccer, The Quant Edge brings you the 3 most-betted sports in the US and the most-betted sport in the world. Regardless of the magic of mathematics, Gross says his extensive patents on the concept of player impact give the business a moat to fend off competitors.
Beyond stronger subscription services, Gross believes the expansion and integration of sports betting and content will allow The Quant Edge to create related shows. He said, “When sports books become he’s a 24-hour news channel, they need relevant content all the time…so people can quantify and bet on what’s going on. [bettor] The jokes you give back and forth can be very timely and very powerful content,” said the executive. “I think we have something very attractive.”
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